Arch Manning 2026 Outlook: Texas Stats, NIL Deal & NFL Future

Arch Manning is the starting quarterback for the Texas Longhorns, having firmly secured the role following the departure of Quinn Ewers to the NFL. As of January 2, 2026, Manning has announced he will forgo the 2026 NFL Draft to return for his senior season, boasting a massive $5.3 million NIL valuation and a 9-3 record in his first full year as a starter.

Arch Manning 2025 Season Review: Stats & Analysis

The 2025 college football season marked the true beginning of the Arch Manning era in Austin. After sitting behind Quinn Ewers for two seasons, Manning took the reins of a Texas offense facing high expectations in the SEC. Our analysis of the Arch Manning Texas Longhorns stats reveals a season defined by early growing pains and a dominant finish.

Manning finished the regular season with approximately 2,942 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Crucially, he added a dual-threat dimension that surprised many scouts, rushing for nearly 400 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Key Games & Performance

• vs. Ohio State (Week 1): A tough 14-7 loss where Manning completed just 17 of 30 passes. It was a “welcome to the big leagues” moment that highlighted the need for refinement against elite defenses.
• vs. Mississippi State (Week 9): A breakout performance with 346 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns, showcasing his ability to dissect SEC secondaries.
• Citrus Bowl vs. Michigan: Manning capped the season with an MVP-caliber performance, demonstrating the poise that scouts have long predicted.

Depth Chart Analysis: Arch Manning vs. Quinn Ewers

For two years, the Arch Manning vs. Quinn Ewers depth chart debate dominated headlines. That conversation is now historical. With Ewers drafted by the Miami Dolphins in the 7th round of the 2025 NFL Draft, Manning is the unquestioned leader of the Longhorns.

However, comparing their pivotal seasons offers insight into Manning’s development trajectory. While Ewers was a pure pocket passer, Manning has proven to be more mobile, though slightly more prone to “hero ball” turnovers in his debut starting year.

Arch Manning NIL Valuation & Deals

The Arch Manning NIL valuation remains the gold standard in college sports. As of early 2026, On3 reports his valuation at $5.3 million. This figure actually represents a slight dip from a preseason high of $6.8 million, a correction due to Texas’s mid-season losses to Georgia and Florida.

Despite the fluctuation, Manning remains the highest-paid player in the sport. His portfolio includes blue-chip partnerships with:

• Warby Parker
• Waymo
• Vuori Clothing
• Red Bull

A Strategic Pay Cut? In a mature move reported in late December 2025, Manning agreed to a reduced revenue-share payout from the university for the 2026 season. This decision allows Texas to allocate more cap space to retaining other key roster talent, proving Manning is prioritizing a national championship over maximizing immediate university-direct earnings.

Scouting Report: Strengths & Weaknesses (2026 Update)

Scouts have updated their Arch Manning scouting report following his first full season as a starter. The consensus? He has “franchise quarterback” written all over him, but he made the right call to return for 2026.

Strengths

• Elite Processing: His ability to read defenses improved drastically from Week 1 to Week 12. He rarely makes the same mistake twice.
• Functional Mobility: Unlike his uncles Peyton and Eli, Arch can extend plays with his legs, evidenced by his 8 rushing TDs in 2025.
• Pedigree & Poise: In high-pressure moments, such as the Citrus Bowl, his heart rate seems to lower. He commands the huddle with authority.

Weaknesses

• Deep Ball Consistency: He struggled early in the 2025 season connecting on throws over 40 yards, often overshooting speedy receivers like Ryan Wingo.
• Pocket Awareness: Took unnecessary sacks against Ohio State and Georgia by holding the ball too long, a habit he must break before the NFL.

Legacy: From Isidore Newman to Austin

Reflecting on his Isidore Newman high school football career, the transition to college has been seamless in terms of production. At Newman, he broke Eli Manning’s passing yardage record (7,268 yards) and Peyton’s touchdown record (93).

Critics initially questioned if his small-school competition inflated those numbers. The 2025 season answered that definitively. While the speed of the SEC caused early hiccups, Manning’s fundamental mechanics—drilled into him since his youth in New Orleans—have translated effectively to the Power 4 level.

Frequently Asked Questions