Executive Insights
- Firearm homicides dropped 14% in 2025, but suicides are rising and now comprise 55% of gun deaths.
- The Supreme Court’s Rahimi decision (2024) upheld disarming dangerous individuals, narrowing the Bruen precedent.
- Mental illness is a minor factor in gun violence (4%); access to firearms is the primary driver of the US’s high rates.
- Community Violence Intervention (CVI) programs are among the most effective strategies for reducing urban homicides.
- Global comparisons show the US firearm death rate is 12-70 times higher than peer nations like Australia and the UK.
Executive Summary: The State of Gun Policy in 2026
As of early 2026, the United States gun policy landscape is defined by a complex interplay between evolving Supreme Court jurisprudence, a fourth consecutive year of declining homicide rates, and a persistent rise in firearm suicides. While federal legislative gridlock continues, state-level laboratories of democracy are diverging sharply: conservative states are loosening carry restrictions, while progressive states are doubling down on Community Violence Intervention (CVI) and Red Flag laws.
This research synthesis analyzes current legislative trends, the effectiveness of key policies based on the latest 2024-2025 data, and global comparative metrics.
1. The Legal Landscape: Post-Bruen and Rahimi
The legal framework for gun policy has been fundamentally reshaped by two landmark Supreme Court rulings.
- NYSRPA v. Bruen (2022): Established the “history and tradition” test, requiring modern gun laws to have a historical analogue from the 18th or 19th century. This initially threatened to dismantle decades of firearm regulations.
- United States v. Rahimi (2024): In a critical correction, the Court ruled 8-1 that disarming individuals who pose a clear physical threat to others (specifically those under domestic violence restraining orders) is consistent with the Second Amendment. This ruling halted the most extreme interpretations of Bruen and preserved the constitutionality of “Red Flag” laws (Extreme Risk Protection Orders).
2. Policy Effectiveness: What the Data Shows (2024-2025)
Recent meta-analyses and legislative reviews highlight which policies are yielding measurable public health outcomes.
| Policy Mechanism | Effectiveness Rating | Key Research Findings (2024-2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Community Violence Intervention (CVI) | High | Programs like Advance Peace and focused deterrence have reduced shootings by up to 45% in cities like Richmond, CA. CVI is credited as a primary driver for the national decline in homicides. |
| Child Access Prevention (CAP) | High | Strong evidence supports that CAP laws significantly reduce youth firearm suicides and unintentional deaths (accidental shootings). |
| Concealed Carry (Shall-Issue) | Negative | States moving to permissive “shall-issue” or permitless carry standards have seen statistically significant increases in violent crime and firearm homicides. |
| Red Flag Laws (ERPOs) | Moderate/Evolving | Effective in preventing specific mass shooting threats and suicides, though implementation varies widely by county and state. |
| Universal Background Checks | Mixed | While broadly supported, data is mixed on their standalone ability to reduce violent crime without complementary licensing systems. |
3. The Public Health Perspective: Suicide vs. Homicide
A critical distinction often lost in political debate is the divergence between homicide and suicide trends.
- Homicide Decline: Firearm homicides dropped by approximately 14% in 2025, continuing a downward trend from the 2021 pandemic peak.
- Suicide Crisis: Firearm suicides have not followed this trend and now account for over 55% of all gun deaths. Research consistently shows that access to a firearm in the home increases the odds of suicide by more than 3x.
- Mental Health Myth: Despite political rhetoric, mental illness is not the primary driver of interpersonal gun violence. Only ~4% of violence is attributable to serious mental illness. The US has similar mental health rates to peer nations but exponentially higher gun death rates, pointing to access as the differentiating variable.
4. Global Comparative Analysis
Comparing the US to other high-ownership or high-income nations reveals structural differences in policy outcomes.
- Australia: Following a terror attack in late 2025, Australia is implementing a new national gun buyback in 2026. Their firearm homicide rate remains ~0.88 per 100k, compared to the US rate of ~4.5-5.6 per 100k.
- Switzerland: Often cited by gun rights advocates, Switzerland has high ownership rates (militia tradition) but a homicide rate of only ~0.2 per 100k. The key difference is mandatory training, strict licensing, and lower social inequality, contrasting with the US focus on self-defense without training mandates.
- United Kingdom: With some of the strictest laws globally, the UK’s firearm death rate is approximately 40-70 times lower than the US.
5. Emerging Legislative Trends (2026)
Looking ahead, three major trends are defining the 2026 legislative session:
- The Rise of “Machine Gun” Conversion Bans: States are increasingly passing bans on “auto sears” and “Glock switches”—cheap devices that convert handguns into fully automatic weapons—bypassing federal gridlock.
- Industry Accountability: Legislation permitting civil lawsuits against gun manufacturers for negligent marketing is gaining traction in blue states, challenging the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA).
- Technological Mandates: A renewed interest in smart gun technology and biometric locking mechanisms as a compromise for safe storage.
In-Depth Q&A
Q: How did the 2024 Rahimi Supreme Court ruling affect gun laws?
The Rahimi ruling clarified that disarming individuals who pose a credible physical threat to others, such as those under domestic violence restraining orders, is constitutional. It limited the scope of the earlier Bruen decision, ensuring that ‘history and tradition’ does not prevent modern safety regulations regarding dangerous individuals.
Q: Do strict gun laws actually reduce crime according to 2025 data?
The data is nuanced. ‘Shall-issue’ concealed carry laws are linked to increases in violent crime. However, Community Violence Intervention (CVI) programs and Child Access Prevention (CAP) laws show strong evidence of reducing homicides and youth suicides, respectively.
Q: What is the relationship between mental illness and gun violence?
Research debunks the myth that mental illness is the primary cause of gun violence. Only about 4% of violence is attributed to serious mental illness. The US has similar mental health rates to other developed nations but vastly higher gun death rates, largely due to firearm access.
Q: How do US gun death rates compare to Switzerland and Australia?
The US gun homicide rate (~5.6/100k) is drastically higher than Switzerland (~0.2/100k) and Australia (~0.88/100k). While Switzerland has high ownership, it mandates strict training and licensing, unlike the US.
Q: What is Community Violence Intervention (CVI)?
CVI refers to programs that use evidence-based strategies, such as violence interrupters and focused deterrence, to engage individuals at highest risk of violence. Cities like Richmond, CA, have seen up to 45% reductions in shootings due to these programs.
